Daily Brief | June 26 2025

Top News

·     In the United States, the trade deficit in May returned to its pre-tariff levels.

·     The third and final estimate of US gross domestic product for the first quarter of the year was revised downward from -0.2% to -0.5%. The downward revision in GDP is explained by lower than initially estimated private consumption.

·     In the week ending June 21, initial unemployment insurance claims stood at 236,000, below consensus expectations and the 245,000 reported a week earlier.

·     The dollar closed at its lowest level in three years, while the euro rebounded to its highest level in four years, reaching $1.17 dollars per euro. 

Economic Outlook

In the United States, the trade deficit in May returned to its pre-tariff levels. In the fifth month of 2025, the US trade deficit in goods stood at -$96.587 billion, compared to a deficit of -$86.965 billion a month earlier and -$99.455 billion in May last year, according to seasonally adjusted figures from the Census Bureau. In its monthly comparison, the deficit grew by 11.1% and in annual terms fell by -2.9%. In this regard, exports of goods in May grew by 6.2% and imports advanced by 2.8%. When reviewing the details of imports, we find mixed results in the fifth month of the year, as imports of industrial and automotive goods fell by -10.7% and -8.1%, respectively, while imports of food and beverages, capital goods, and consumer goods grew by 4.5%, 16.0%, and 2.3%, in that order. In May, it is important to note that a preliminary agreement was announced between the US and China that paused tariffs above 100% between the two countries for 90 days. In addition, the figures returned to their levels prior to the US tariff rounds.

Markets and Stocks

Futures on the major US indices were trading higher. Meanwhile, data on initial jobless claims was released, coming in at 236,000, below expectations. Yesterday, attention was focused on Nvidia’s annual shareholders’ meeting, where Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, anticipated that the company’s next major advances will be in the area of robotics and autonomous vehicles. In Europe, markets were mixed, with the defense sector rebounding after NATO’s announcement of increased military spending. In Asia, markets closed mixed, with the Nikkei reaching five-month highs.

In the commodities market, oil prices remained slightly positive. The drop in US crude inventories supported prices, although the market remains attentive to compliance with the ceasefire in the Middle East. Gold traded at $3,325 per ounce, driven by the weak dollar and uncertainty after President Trump suggested he is considering appointing a successor to the Federal Reserve chairman.

In fixed income, US Treasury bond yields showed declines. The 10-year bond yield fell to 4.27%, while the 2-year yield stood at 3.74%.

In Mexico, the IPyC future was trading up 1.44%, while the exchange rate was virtually unchanged, having closed at 18.9 pesos per dollar in the previous session.

Corporate News

à Shell categorically denied that it was considering a takeover bid for BP following reports suggesting preliminary talks between the two oil companies, fueled by BP’s prolonged poor performance and pressure from Elliott Management. However, Shell’s denial dampened market expectations.

à Bob Jordan, CEO of Southwest Airlines, revealed that the airline is considering offering premium services, long-haul flights, and lounge access. Although the changes seek to attract high-spending passengers who currently fly with competitors such as Delta or United, the market remains skeptical about the challenges involved in transforming its low-cost model.

à Micron Technology exceeded revenue and profit expectations for the quarter, driven by growth in its data center business and accelerated demand for HBM memory used in artificial intelligence applications.