Daily Brief | June 25 2025

Top News

·     In the United States, consumer confidence declined in June following the sharp rebound seen in May.

·     U.S. President Donald Trump celebrated the swift end to the war between Iran and Israel, stating he now expected a relationship with Tehran that would prevent the rebuilding of its nuclear program, despite uncertainty over the damage caused by the strikes.

·     NATO leaders on Wednesday backed a significant increase in defense spending and reaffirmed their commitment to mutual defense in the event of an attack, after a brief summit tailored for U.S. President Donald Trump.

·     U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will resume his two-day testimony before Congress on Wednesday, appearing before the Senate Banking Committee after facing questions in the House a day earlier, which focused on the central bank’s concerns that the Trump administration’s tariff plans could raise inflation.

·     China’s Premier Li Qiang said he was confident that the world’s second-largest economy could maintain a “relatively rapid” pace of growth as it shifts from a manufacturing-led model to one driven by consumption.

·     In Mexico, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit carried out a global bond issuance totaling $6.8 billion, with maturities in 2032 and 2038. The operation reduced maturities between 2027 and 2031 by 15% and enabled the repurchase of a bond maturing in 2026. 

Economic Outlook

In the United States, consumer confidence declined in June following the strong rebound observed in May. The Conference Board index dropped 5.4 points to 93.0, erasing nearly half of the previous month’s gains. This decline was reflected in both the assessment of the current situation, which fell to 129.1, and short-term expectations, which dropped to 69.0—a level well below the historical threshold that typically signals a recession. Consumers expressed a more cautious view of the labor market, with a decline in the share of those who believe jobs are plentiful, while the perception of difficulty in finding employment remained stable. Concerns persist regarding the impact of tariffs and prices, although 12-month inflation expectations eased slightly to 6.0%, down from previous months. Regarding spending, intentions to purchase automobiles remained firm, while homebuying plans declined. Spending on services stabilized, with more moderate trends in entertainment and discretionary consumption. Overall, the decline in confidence during June suggests that May’s rebound may have been temporary. Household sentiment remains under pressure from trade tensions, persistent inflationary pressures, and labor market uncertainty

Markets and Stocks

U.S. equity futures traded slightly higher, as Jerome Powell reiterated before the Senate that the Fed will keep monetary policy unchanged until there is greater clarity on the impact of tariffs. Yesterday, major indexes closed with solid gains following signs of stabilization in the Middle East. Meanwhile, in Europe, markets were slightly lower after NATO’s historic announcement to raise its defense spending target to 5% of GDP by 2035. In Asia, markets closed in positive territory. The truce between Iran and Israel continues to generate cautious optimism across the region.

In commodities, oil prices recovered slightly after two sessions of steep declines, supported by expectations that the Iran-Israel truce will hold and by a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories. Gold traded at $3,320 per ounce after recent declines due to reduced safe-haven demand; however, uncertainty surrounding Iran’s nuclear program continues to sustain investor interest.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields held steady with marginal changes. The 10-year note traded at 4.32% and the 2-year at 3.80%, as markets await key economic data this week, particularly the PCE index due on Friday.

Locally, the futures for Mexico’s IPC index were up 1.28%, while the peso-dollar exchange rate remained unchanged after closing the previous session at 19.0 pesos per dollar.

Sigma announced a plan to restore its production capacity in Spain following flood damage at its Torrente plant in Q4 2024. The plan includes the construction of a new packaged meats facility in Valencia, with a €134 million investment, and the expansion of its “La Bureba” plant in Castilla y León with an additional €23 million investment. Both projects will be primarily funded through insurance reimbursements and government incentives, and are expected to be fully operational by 2027. The initiative aims not only to recover lost capacity but also to enhance efficiency and competitiveness for Sigma Europe in the region.

Corporate News

– Nvidia is set to hold its annual shareholders’ meeting. While expectations for new announcements remain modest, CEO Jensen Huang has reinforced optimism by highlighting the growing demand for computing capacity to support inference models.

– FedEx issued a quarterly earnings guidance below market expectations, despite having exceeded forecasts in the previous quarter. Although it achieved its $4 billion structural savings target and reported operational improvements, the company warned of pressures on international exports, mainly due to the impact of new trade policies between China and the U.S.

– BlackBerry raised its revenue guidance for the fiscal year, driven by better-than-expected quarterly results. The company reported positive adjusted earnings, compared to losses in the previous year, and highlighted improvements in its QNX software unit.