Daily Brief | June 16 2025

Top News

·     In China, May activity indicators showed mixed signals, with a slowdown in industrial production and an unexpected rebound in consumption.

·     G7 leaders began their annual talks on Monday amid the backdrop of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, heightening global economic uncertainty, while host country Canada seeks to avoid confrontation with U.S. President Donald Trump.

·     President Trump has ordered an expansion of deportation efforts, calling for the “largest mass deportation operation in history.” Cities like Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York are key targets, despite protests, with a focus on areas of high undocumented immigrant concentration.

·     The European Union is reportedly willing to accept a uniform 10% tariff on its exports to the U.S. in a bid to avoid higher duties on cars, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, according to German financial newspaper Handelsblatt.

·     The conflict between Israel and Iran has entered its fourth day with no sign of de-escalation, as aerial attacks continue, leaving over 220 dead in Iran and at least 14 in Israel. 

Economic Outlook

In China, May data showed mixed signals, with industrial production growing 5.8% year-over-year—below April’s 6.1% and marking a six-month low. In contrast, retail sales rose 6.4% y/y, their highest increase since December 2023, supported by Labor Day holiday spending, consumption subsidies, and an early “618” shopping festival. Fixed asset investment in the first five months grew 3.7% y/y, below the 4.0% expected by consensus. Overall, a fragile real estate sector and trade tensions with the U.S.—where tariffs remain as high as 55%—continue to weigh on economic momentum. Unemployment slightly improved, moving from 5.1% in April to 5.0% in May, its lowest level since November 2024. Analysts expect further moderation in growth during the second half of the year amid fading fiscal and structural support.

Markets and Stocks

U.S. stock futures posted modest gains as investors closely monitor the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Attention is also on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this Wednesday, where the policy committee is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, despite pressure from President Trump urging Chair Jerome Powell to cut. In Europe, markets were broadly higher, while Asian markets also ended in positive territory.

In commodities, oil prices were down, with the market still focused on the Middle East following Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation, raising concerns over potential disruptions to energy production. Meanwhile, gold prices edged slightly lower, trading around $3,415 per ounce, as investors weigh safe-haven demand amid geopolitical volatility.

In fixed income, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield climbed to 3.96%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.43%.

In Mexico, the IPC futures were little changed, while the exchange rate stood at 18.85 pesos per dollar, compared to 18.94 in the previous session.

Grupo México announced the sale of approximately 80% of its stake in Concesionaria de Infraestructura del Bajío (CIBSA), and indirectly, 99% of Operadora de Infraestructura del Bajío (OIBSA), along with 100% of Concesionaria Autopista Silao. The deal, valued at around 7.7 billion pesos, is subject to regulatory and third-party approvals and is expected to close in the second half of 2025. Grupo México will retain an 18.69% stake in CIBSA. The proceeds will be used for investment projects in Mexico and for general corporate purposes across the company’s business lines.

Corporate News

à President Donald Trump intervened to help resolve a spectrum dispute involving telecom company EchoStar. This was significant, as the company had threatened to file for bankruptcy, claiming FCC actions were blocking its decision to pursue a 5G network buildout.

à Roku announced an exclusive new partnership with Amazon. The collaboration will give advertisers access to the “largest authenticated connected TV footprint,” reaching approximately 80 million U.S. households and enhancing ad targeting precision and campaign effectiveness.

à Donald Trump issued an executive order approving U.S. Steel’s merger with Japan’s Nippon Steel. The approval includes a national security agreement with a “golden share” for the U.S. government, removing the final regulatory hurdle for completing the deal.