Daily Brief | June 11 2025

Top News

·     Industrial production in Mexico showed weakness at the beginning of the second quarter.

·     In the United States, consumer inflation (CPI) rose moderately in May.

·     The U.S. and China have reached an agreement to implement the Geneva consensus, aimed at reducing trade tensions. Both delegations will present the proposal to their respective leaders.

·     A U.S. federal appeals court ruled that Donald Trump can continue enforcing his global tariffs. The order grants the administration an extension while it appeals a lower court’s decision.

·     The European Union anticipates that trade negotiations with the U.S. could extend beyond the July 9 deadline. The U.S. set this date to impose 50% tariffs on European exports. A response from the U.S. to the latest round of negotiations is still pending.

·     Japan’s annual wholesale inflation slowed in May on falling import costs for raw materials, data showed on Wednesday, taking some pressure off the central bank to raise interest rates. 

Economic Outlook

Industrial production in Mexico showed signs of weakness at the start of the second quarter. In April 2025, industrial activity declined by 4.0% year-over-year, following a 1.9% annual increase in the previous month (vs. -3.9% expected), according to original figures. By sector, mining fell by 7.7% y/y, electricity, water, and gas supply dropped 1.7% y/y, construction declined 6.8% y/y, and manufacturing contracted 2.6% y/y. On a monthly basis, industrial activity rose 0.1% in April. Overall, the data reflected a weak start to the second quarter for industrial production in 2025.

In the United States, consumer inflation (CPI) rose moderately in May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its consumer price index (CPI) data for the fifth month of 2025, showing a 2.4% year-over-year increase, slightly below the market consensus of 2.5% but above the 2.3% recorded in the previous month, based on original figures. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, rose by 2.8% in May, unchanged from the previous month. Overall, consumer prices in the U.S. increased marginally in May, although inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months as a result of import tariffs implemented by the Trump administration.

Markets and Stocks

U.S. stock index futures were trading higher this morning, driven by a preliminary agreement between the U.S. and China to restore their trade truce and lift restrictions on key exports. Additionally, May inflation data showed a 0.1% monthly increase in the CPI, below expectations. In Europe, markets posted slight gains following an analysis of public spending in the U.K. and amid ongoing trade uncertainty with the U.S., which is threatening new tariffs. In Asia, major indexes closed higher after the consensus reached between China and the U.S.

In the commodities market, oil reached its highest level in seven weeks, supported by optimism over the trade deal and rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which has threatened retaliation if nuclear negotiations fail. Gold, meanwhile, held around $3,338 per ounce.

In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.43%, while the 2-year yield fell to 3.95%, following the softer-than-expected inflation reading.

In Mexico, the local equity market showed a positive bias, with the IPyC futures trading 0.1% higher. Meanwhile, the exchange rate stood at 18.96 pesos per dollar, compared to 19.05 the previous day.

Liverpool announced it will end its role as a distributor of the BYD brand in order to focus on strategic business areas.

Corporate News

• Meta will invest $14 billion in Scale AI and has hired its founder, Alexandr Wang, to strengthen its artificial intelligence strategy.

• General Motors announced a $4 billion investment in the U.S. to shift part of its production from Mexico, amid tariff pressures.

• Starbucks will roll out generative AI assistants in collaboration with Microsoft at 35 stores in June, as part of its plan to streamline operations and recover sales.