The Day at a Glance | April 4 2025

The Top

• In the U.S., March employment figures exceeded consensus expectations.
• China announced additional 34% tariffs on U.S. products, marking the most severe escalation yet in the trade war, fueling fears of a recession and triggering a sharp drop in global stock markets.
• President Trump said he is open to cutting tariffs if other countries offer favorable conditions. He mentioned active negotiations with governments and companies following the recent market plunge.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will join the internal debate at the central bank on Friday regarding whether the Trump administration’s policies will fuel inflation or hinder growth and employment to the extent that the Fed would need to step in.
• The IMF warned that the new U.S. tariffs pose a significant risk to the global economy. It urged for trade tensions to be resolved to avoid adverse effects on global growth.
• The new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump could delay the Bank of Japan’s plans to continue raising interest rates, as policymakers seek to avoid further depreciation of the yen that could worsen inflationary pressures.
• Oil prices plummeted by 8% on Friday, heading for their lowest close since the 2021 pandemic, after China retaliated in the escalating global trade war with the U.S., following the new wave of tariffs announced this week by President Trump.

Economic Environment

In the U.S., March employment figures exceeded consensus expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that in March 2025, nonfarm payrolls increased by 228,000 jobs, well above the consensus estimate of 135,000 and February´s revised figure, which was adjusted down to 117,000. This marks the strongest job growth figure in three months. On the other hand, the unemployment rate set at 4.2% in March, also above the market consensus and the previous month’s 4.1%. Meanwhile, wage growth in March came in at 3.8% y/y, below the 4.0% y/y logged in February. Overall, the U.S. economy created far more jobs than expected in March, but the broad import tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump could test the labor market’s resilience in the coming months, amidst weakening business confidence and a decline in the stock market.

Markets and Companies

In the United States, markets were logging negative figures. Trade tensions intensified after China announced 34% tariffs on all imports from the U.S., in response to the new levies imposed by President Trump. Additionally, March´s job report showed the creation of 228,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.

In Europe, markets were also retreating, particularly banking sector stocks, amidst fears of a global slowdown. European authorities threatened trade retaliation, while in France, President Macron urged a freeze on investments in the U.S. Lastly, Asian markets closed with losses.

In commodities, oil prices were declining, weighed down by the production increase announced by OPEC+ and growing concerns over global demand in the context of a trade war. Meanwhile, gold was trading at $3,070 per ounce, after reaching an all-time high yesterday.

In the fixed income market, U.S. Treasury yields were falling. The 10-year bond stood at 3.94%, while the 2-year fell to 3.55%, marking their lowest levels since October.

As for the local market, the IPC was trading lower at 53,482 points, while the exchange rate stood at 20.47 pesos per dollar, after having reached 19.94 in the previous session.

Corporate News

• Apple shares were down at the open due to its heavy reliance on production in China, which now faces a 34% tariff from the Chinese government in response to new U.S. tariffs.
• Shares of U.S. banks such as Goldman Sachs were retreating amid growing fears of a recession in the U.S. driven by the escalation of the trade war.