The Day at a Glance | March 10 2025

The Top

• In China, consumer inflation reached its highest level in five months in January, while producer price deflation persisted.

• President Donald Trump avoided predicting whether the U.S. could face a recession amidst market concerns over his tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China due to fentanyl.

• Former central banker Mark Carney secured a decisive victory on Sunday to lead Canada’s Liberal Party and become the country’s next prime minister.

• Germany’s industrial production rose in January, but exports plummeted, highlighting the challenges the next government will face in revitalizing the Eurozone’s largest economy amid geopolitical uncertainty.

• Consumer confidence in Mexico stood at 46.3 points in February, according to seasonally adjusted figures. The reading was 0.3 points lower than the previous month.

• Japan’s Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, stated on Monday that the central bank is close to achieving its 2% inflation target.

• Oil prices remained stable on Monday, affected by uncertainty over US tariffs and the increase in OPEC+ production, while the possibility of new sanctions on Iran’s crude exports provided some support.

Economic Environment

In China, deflationary pressures intensified in February. Annual consumer inflation fell by -0.7% year-on-year, reversing the 0.5% increase in January and coming in below the -0.5% estimate by analysts. On a monthly basis, inflation decreased by -0.2%, after rising 0.7% the previous month. Core inflation also showed weakness, falling by -0.1% year-on-year for the first time since January 2021, reflecting weak domestic consumption. It´s worth noting that the moderation in prices is partly explained by the difference in the Lunar New Year date compared to last year, which impacted spending on food and tourism. As for annual producer inflation, February´s reading was -2.2%, marking 29 months of negative figures due to industrial overcapacity and pressure on export prices. Overall, consumer inflation fell again in February, recording its largest contraction in 13 months, while producer price deflation persists. In this regard, the decline in consumer inflation reinforces concerns about weak consumption and persistent deflationary pressure in manufacturing, which could increase the need for economic stimulus. Although Beijing maintains its growth target of 5% for 2025, the reduction of the inflation target to 2% and the lack of immediate support measures suggest a cautious strategy in the short term.

Markets and Companies

Stocks in the US are falling due to recession fears. In an interview aired on Sunday, President Donald Trump responded to a question on Fox News about the possibility of a recession, stating that the economy was going through “a period of transition”. 

European markets are also down, reversing morning gains and extending the volatility that marked global markets last week.

Meanwhile, in Asia, markets closed with mixed results. Notably, Japan’s 10-year bond yield reached a new high.

As for commodities, oil prices remain stable; tariff uncertainty keeps investors on edge.

Gold prices are down due to a slight rebound in the dollar, reducing its appeal as a safe haven amidst trade war concerns.

In Mexico, the IPC is down -0.31%. 

Over the weekend, the exchange rate fluctuated between a low of 20.19 and a high of 20.30. It currently stands at 20.24. 

Corporate News

• Redfin shares surged over 75% before the market opened after announcing its plan to be acquired by Rocket Companies in a $1.75 billion all-stock deal. The deal is expected to close in the second or third quarter of this year.

• Nvidia shares fell 2% in the pre-market. This adds to recent declines for the stock, which lost more than 9% last week and has dropped about 16% so far this year.