The Day at a Glance | February 12 2025

The Top

• In the US, CPI inflation for the first month of 2025 came in above market consensus estimates.

• Donald Trump’s trade advisors are set to finalize a proposal as soon as Wednesday for reciprocal tariffs on all countries that impose tariffs on US imports.

• Bank of France President François Villeroy de Galhau reaffirmed on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies will likely have a negative impact on the economy.

• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Wednesday that the central bank will conduct its monetary policy while considering the risks of persistently high food prices affecting inflation expectations.

• The Israeli military has called up reservists in preparation for a potential resumption of fighting in Gaza if Hamas fails to release more Israeli hostages before Saturday’s deadline, which would break the nearly month-long ceasefire.

• Oil prices fell 1% on Wednesday, ending a three-day winning streak, following reports of rising US crude inventories and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggesting a slower pace of rate cuts this year.

Economic Environment

In the US, CPI inflation for the first month of 2025 came in above market consensus estimates. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its consumer price inflation (CPI) data for January, showing a 0.5% m/m increase on a seasonally adjusted basis. Housing costs rose 0.4% m/m, accounting for nearly 30% of the overall CPI increase. On an annual basis, CPI inflation stood at 3.0% in January, above the 2.9% market consensus estimate based on unadjusted figures. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes energy and food, rose 0.4% m/m in January. Annually, core inflation reached 3.3% in the first month of the year, well above the 3.1% market consensus. Overall, inflation figures came in higher than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will pause its rate-cutting cycle. At the time of writing, the 10-year US Treasury yield had risen 10 basis points to 4.63%.

Markets and Companies

US stock market futures are trading lower as the market absorbs the release of January’s consumer price index, which came in higher than expected at 0.5%, compared to the 0.3% consensus estimate. Additionally, Jerome Powell is set to testify before Congress for a second time today. Yesterday, the Fed Chair stated that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates. Powell’s comments and the inflation data are shaping market expectations regarding the future of monetary policy.

In Europe, stock markets were trading higher, driven by Heineken’s strong quarterly report, which boosted beverage sector stocks.

Oil prices are retreating after three consecutive days of gains, as the market awaits EIA data that could confirm a rise in weekly crude inventories.

US Treasury yields are rising as investors react to January´sinflation figures and Powell’s remarks. The 2-year yield stands at 4.38%, while the 10-year yield is at 4.63%.

In Mexico, IPC futures are trading higher.

The peso-dollar exchange rate stands at $20.60, after closing at $20.54 yesterday.

América Móvil reported revenues of Ps. 237 billion (+18% y/y). EBITDA grew 16% y/y, though the margin contracted by 5 basis points. The company continues to expand its postpaid subscriber base in its main markets, as well as the growth of its corporate networks segment. Results were also driven by foreign exchange effects and accounting adjustments in Argentina.

Grupo México released its 4Q24 results, with revenues increasing by 12.4% and EBITDA rising 19.2% y/y, reaching a 49% margin (+3 pp). Despite results coming in below expectations, the mining company remains well-positioned amid growing copper demand and constrained supply.

Arca Continental reported very strong quarterly results. Consolidated revenues for 4Q24 rose +29.9% to $64.947 billion (+12.7% excluding FX effects), while consolidated volume increased by +3.6%. EBITDA increased +41.7% to $14.181 billion, with a 21.8% margin (+180 basis points year on year). 

Corporate News

• CVS shares were rising pre-market as its quarterly results exceeded expectations despite higher costs in its insurance business.

• Restaurant Brands International reported a 2.5% growth in same-store sales for the quarter, driven by strong performance from formats like Burger King and Popeye’s.

• Lyft shares were declining after the company reported results that set below expectations.