The Day at a Glance | February 10 2021

The Top

· Global trade contracted 9% during 2020; its recovery will slow down in the 1Q21: UNCTAD.

· Chair of the FED Jerome Powell will comment on the economy and the stability of prices in an event in New York (1pm Mexico City time).

· Economic indicators: Inflation in the US surprises to the downside (1.4% vs 1.5% e. annual, January).

Economic environment

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expects to see a contraction in global trade in the first quarter of the year. The UNCTAD said it expects to see a slowdown regarding the recovery in global trade during the first months of 2021 after the pandemic continues to have negative effects. According to the report, the contraction in trade in 2020 set at up to 9%, with a 15% setback seen in the 1S20. The recovery was seen in the second half of the year and began to record an 8% recovery in the 4Q20, boosted by emerging economies in Asia, which logged a 12% rise in trade during the last months of 2020. The recovery has been led by the trade of goods as trade of services has been stagnant. Onwards, the UNCTAD expects to see a (-) 1.5% contraction in the trade of goods and (-) 7% in the trade of services in the first quarter of 2021, even though uncertainty is maintained as recovery continues to depend on the pandemic`s developments and the approval (or lack) of new fiscal stimulus.

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