The Day at a Glance | April 16 2025

The Top

• China’s economy remained strong in the first quarter of 2025, despite the imposition of tariffs.

• A U.S. executive order states that China faces tariffs of up to 245% on certain critical minerals, as part of the recently imposed rounds of tariffs.

• U.S. retail sales rose 1.4% m/m in March, led by a 5.4% m/m rebound in auto sales, driven by early purchases ahead of the tariffs implemented in early April.

• President Donald Trump announced he will personally attend a meeting between Japanese and U.S. trade officials this Wednesday—a surprise move that highlights his intent to directly oversee the negotiations triggered by his wave of global import tariffs.

Economic Environment

China’s economy remained strong in the first quarter of 2025, despite the imposition of tariffs. The world’s second-largest economy posted solid annual growth, 5.4% in Q1 2025, above the 5.1% market consensus estimate and in line with the pace observed in the last quarter of 2024. By sector, agriculture expanded 3.5% y/y, industrial output rose 5.9% y/y, and services increased 5.3% y/y. Within industrial production, mining increased 6.5%, manufacturing surged 10.9%, and electricity, gas, and water supply rose 1.9%. In manufacturing, notable year-over-year gains were recorded in electric vehicle production (+45.4%), 3D printers (+44.9%), and industrial robots (+26.0%). The services sector also showed double-digit growth, particularly in information transmission (+10.3%) and IT software and services (+10.2%). Retail sales rose 4.6% in Q1 2025, driven by strong growth in communication equipment (+26.9%), office supplies (+21.7%), and household appliances and audiovisual equipment (+19.3%). Fixed asset investment increased 4.2% y/y in the first three months of 2025. Within this figure, investment in manufacturing rose 5.8%, while real estate investment dropped 9.9%. Overall, China’s economic activity data for the quarter was strong, with notable growth in new high-tech industries. However, in the accompanying press release, Chinese officials acknowledged that external conditions have become more complex and severe, and that domestic growth remains insufficient for the world’s second-largest economy.

Markets and Companies

The S&P 500 is down as investors digest a stark warning from Nvidia, which put pressure on the entire global tech sector. Nvidia shares plunged more than -6% after the company announced a $5.5 billion quarterly charge related to exports of its H20 graphics units to China and other countries.

In Europe, markets are down amidst continued uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, which is weighing on investor confidence. The Stoxx 600 was down -0.6% at 1:31 p.m. London time, following two strong sessions.

In Asia, markets closed mostly lower due to concerns over the ongoing trade war.

Regarding commodities, oil is rising on speculation about potential U.S.-China trade talks.

Meanwhile, gold hit record highs amidst a weaker dollar, rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and concerns over global economic growth.

In Mexico, the IPyC is logging no changes (+0.01%), and the exchange rate stands at 20.03 after closing at 20.10 yesterday.

Corporate News

• Shares of J.B. Hunt Transport Services fell -6% despite the company beating analyst estimates on both revenue and earnings in the first quarter. However, it reported a -1% year-over-year decline in both revenue and operating income.

• Shares of United Airlines rose more than +7% after the company’s first-quarter results beat Wall Street expectations. The airline reported adjusted earnings of 91 cents per share, above the forecasted 76 cents. The company issued two full-year outlooks and described the economy as “impossible to predict.”