The Day at a Glance | April 10 2025

 In the U.S., March CPI inflation came in lower than expected.

• Later today, the minutes from the Central Bank of Mexico´s monetary policy meeting will be released. We expect to understand each member’s stance regarding upcoming decisions.

• President Donald Trump announced a temporary 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs to facilitate negotiations with affected countries. The measure took effect this Thursday.

• The European Union agreed to postpone its trade countermeasures against the U.S. by 90 days, in response to Trump’s announcement. The block aims to avoid an escalation in the trade war.

• The U.S. tariff policy has increasingly isolated China, while Washington strengthens alliances with Europe and Mexico. Analysts warn of a possible imminent trade clash.

• Annual wholesale inflation in Japan reached 4.2% in March, accelerating from the previous month, signaling persistent cost pressures that are adding to corporate challenges amidst uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy.

• Oil prices fell more than 2% on Thursday, as fears of a deepening U.S.-China trade war and a potential recession overshadowed the initial relief sparked by President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on certain tariffs affecting most countries.

Economic Environment

In the U.S., March CPI inflation came in lower than expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for March, showing a decline of -0.1% month-over-month (m/m) on a seasonally adjusted basis. In the month in question, the energy index fell by 2.4% m/m, driven by a -6.3% m/m drop in gasoline prices. Additionally, there were declines in airline fares (-1.4% m/m), medical care commodities (-1.1% m/m), and used cars and trucks (-0.7% m/m). On a year-over-year basis, CPI inflation stood at 2.4% in March, below the market consensus estimate of 2.6% and February´s 2.8%, based on unadjusted figures. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, rose by 0.1% m/m in March. Annually, core inflation came in at 2.8%, also below the market consensus estimate of 3.0% and the previous month’s reading of 3.1%. Overall, the figures were significantly better than market expectations, contributing to the possibility of cuts being made to the federal funds rate. The market estimates that up to four rate cuts could take place before the end of the year.

Markets and Companies

In the United States, markets retreated after a strong rebound on Wednesday, which marked their second-best day in history. This was driven by President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs for most of the country’s trading partners—excluding China, which was hit with a 125% tariff. Additionally, the CPI index for March was released, coming in below expectations (2.4% y/y).

In Europe, markets were trading positively due to the U.S. tariff decision. Lastly, in Asia, markets closed in positive territory in response to the trade measure.

In the commodities market, oil prices declined, pressured by the increase in tariffs on China, the world’s largest crude importer. Meanwhile, gold extended its upward trend, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and a weaker dollar, reaching $3,127 per ounce.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields fell following the lower-than-expected inflation data. The 10-year bond stood at 4.31%, while the 2-year dropped to 3.83%.

As for the local market, the IPC was trading lower at 52,179 points, while the exchange rate stood at 20.42 pesos per dollar, after having reached 20.18 in the previous session.

Corporate News

• Used car dealership chain CarMax reported quarterly results below expectations, with earnings per share of $0.58 versus the estimated $0.65. Shares declined amidst signs of weakening demand for used cars, pointing to a more challenging economic environment and pressured margins.

• Shares of U.S. Steel fell after President Trump spoke out against the company’s acquisition by Nippon Steel, creating uncertainty over the deal’s viability.

• Tesla shares led losses among mega-cap tech stocks following a series of price target cuts by analysts, who pointed to a slowdown in global demand and tighter margins.